Territorial disputes among armed groups in Shan North may intensify under new government
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Phyo/Thant Zin (NP News) - Feb 24
While there will be fewer battles between the Tatmadaw and armed groups in northern Shan State under the new government, territorial disputes between armed groups could intensify, according to an expert on northern Shan affairs contacted by The Statesman.
Given the current political situation, there may be fewer encounters with the Tatmadaw on the Mandalay-Lashio road, but it is still difficult to predict the Tatmadaw's decision on areas that have not yet been reoccupied, such as the Hseinwi Township.
However, he said that it is more likely that there will be intensified conflicts between local armed groups than confrontations with the Tatmadaw under the new government.
“There is little chance of conflict during the next government. There may be the regional conflicts and territorial disputes. These problems can continue to grow. Our first view is that the effects of the war are still there. As for the Tatmadaw, there will be no conflict in the current Mandalay-Lashio section. Since the Hseinwi section has not been regained, it is difficult to predict what the Tatmadaw will decide to do,” he said.
However, he said that the current tensions between the TNLA and MNDAA could continue to worsen due to friction between the two groups over mineral mining issues and the mutual destruction of liaison offices in areas they control.
“There may be conflicts between armed groups. Issues related to the economy, for example, mineral mining, and attacks on liaison offices are gradually increasing. Therefore, we have some concerns over it,” he said.
According to reports, MNDAA forcibly captured about 50 members of TNLA in Mong Par Village, Hseinwi Township on February 17 and then they were sent to Einaing Village, Lashio Township by car.
Similarly, TNLA members went to the MNDAA administrative office near Kutkai Market, took down the Kokang flag, expelled MNDAA guard forces, and clashes subsequently occurred on February 16.
Therefore, the TNLA and MNDAA want to divide Kutkai between them for administration, and the two groups are also showing signs of wanting to establish a permanent base in the areas they control, the source said.
“For example, the TNLA and MNDAA want to divide Kutkai. They want to rule their portion. The current northern groups want to stay where they can occupy and rule. The people want peace. Recently, we have seen MNDAA holding talks with the government. There have also been talks with the SSPP. According to their statements, they want to rule without seceding from the union. We see this kind of situation,” he said.
He said that under these circumstances, the locals just want peace to be restored from the mainland to Muse and hope for the government to resume normal governance as before. –