Myanmar’s prospects for elections: A critical assessment

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Phyo Lin Aung (NP News) - July 2

The Union Election Comm­ission (UEC) has announced that general elections are scheduled to take place in December, with voting to be conducted in 267 out of the 330 townships across Myanmar. Furthermore, the Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) stated that, the constitution includes provisions for achieving a quorum in convening Hluttaw sessions, and when examining the laws, it is evident that elections can be successfully conducted by citing Articles 85, 128, and 155 of the 2008 Constitution.
However, these announcements raise some important questions:
As the UEC announced, will elections really be able to be held in the 267 townships?
As stated by the SAC Chairman, will the Hluttaw sessions actually be conducted validly in accordance with the constitution?
To imagine it rationally, the possibility of holding elections in townships can be assessed in detail by considering all relevant factors, such as security and regional stability.
1. Yangon Region: Among the 45 townships, all areas can hold elections peacefully because there are no insurgent activities, and the SAC government maintains its influence throughout the region.
2. Mandalay Region: Out of 28 townships, elections are feasible in around 15. Some areas are under the control of armed groups such as the PDF and the TNLA (Ta'ang National Liberation Army), making elections in those areas unviable.
3. Ayeyarwady Region: All 26 townships are likely to be covered for elections, although some outskirts are experiencing pressure from AA (Arakan Army) offensives.
4. Sagaing Region: Out of 37 townships, only 15 are currently suitable for elections. Townships such as Depayin, Taze, and Yinmarpin are facing deteriorating security due to ongoing clashes between the Tatmadaw and PDF forces. Additionally, the upper part of Sagaing is witnessing increased insurgent activity from the KIA (Kachin Independence Army).
5. Magway Region: Although there are 25 townships, only 10 can reasonably hold elections due to active PDF insurgent threats.
6. Bago Region: Out of 28 townships, elections may be possible in around 15. This is due to the presence of armed conflicts involving the PDF and KNU (Karen National Union).
7. Tanintharyi Region: Among 10 townships, only 5 are secure enough for elections, as the rest are affected by PDF and KNU insurgent activities.
8. Naypyidaw Union Territory: All 8 townships can hold elections without major security concerns.
9. Kachin State: Of the 18 townships, only 8 are currently suitable for elections. The remaining areas face security and stability challenges due to KIA operations.
10. Chin State: Out of 9 townships, only one is viable for holding elections. Although Chin State is geographically small, it is highly militarized with several active armed groups.
11. Rakhine State: Among 17 townships, only 3 can successfully hold elections. The remaining 14 are under AA control.
12. Shan State: Out of 55 townships, around 25 are suitable for elections. Northern Shan State, in particular, is experiencing intense fighting between various ethnic armed forces and the Tatmadaw.
13. Kayah State: Among 7 townships, only 3 can hold elections, as the rest are conflict zones with ongoing armed battles.
14. Kayin State: Of the 7 townships, only 3 are feasible for elections. The presence of multiple ethnic armed groups such as the KNU and DKBA continues to undermine regional stability.
15. Mon State: Among 10 townships, elections can likely be held in 6. The remaining areas are experiencing anti-government activity led by the NMSP (New Mon State Party) and PDF groups.
Therefore, by totaling them, it can be estimated that approximately 188 townships will be able to hold elections across the country peacefully. As a result, around 188 Pyithu Hluttaw representatives could be elected through the general elections, given the intended use of the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system. By adding 110 Tatmadaw-appointed representatives, the total number of Pyithu Hluttaw representatives would become 298.
According to Article 128, which states that a Pyithu Hluttaw first day session is valid if more than half of the total number of representatives are present, so it would be possible to successfully convene a Pyithu Hluttaw first day session with the participation of these approximately 298 representatives.
Similarly, the Amyotha Hluttaw will be composed of 12 representatives from each region, state, or union territory, along with one representative from each self-administered zone. Notably, the Proportional Representation (PR) system will be used for electing Amyotha Hluttaw members. This system presents an opportunity for ethnic and independent candidates, as it increases their chances of being elected even in unstable constituencies, particularly due to the closed-list type of the PR system.
In this way, it is possible to elect 168 Amyotha Hluttaw members without major external obstacles. By adding 56 Tatmadaw-appointed representatives, the total number becomes 224. While this exact number may not be fully achievable in practice, it demonstrates that meeting the required quorum for the first day session of the Amyotha Hluttaw as stated in Article 155 is not difficult.
If both the Pyithu Hluttaw and Amyotha Hluttaw are sufficiently filled, it would also not be difficult to convene the first day session of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw in accordance with Article 85. It means a minimum of 333 Pyidaungsu Hluttaw members is required to validly convene the session. Therefore, based on the estimated elected numbers outlined above, it is reasonable to conclude that convening the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw could be realistically achieved.
The SAC government has already announced that the elections will be held in phases. The SAC has scheduled elections for the third and last weeks of December, as well as the first and second weeks of January. It is estimated that vote counting and result announcements will continue through to the end of February. By March, it is expected that the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw will have reached the required quorum, and the country will be ready with an elected President, Vice Presidents, and the three branches of government.
Myanmar is not the only country struggling with internal conflict while attempting to stabilize through elections. Looking back at United States history, we find a similar situation. During the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln won the presidential election despite the ongoing war between the North and South. Although Lincoln received the majority of votes primarily from the Northern states, he secured victory through the Electoral College. This serves as a well-known example that even a country facing significant internal conflict can successfully hold elections and elect a democratic government.
That is why it can be said: the journey toward establishing a democratic government is not far off, it is near. Everything needed to embark on this journey is now in place. Once ready, everyone can participate and contribute to shaping our country. Whether to join or not depends on each individual’s decision. A smooth and successful path lies ahead, waiting to be traveled.

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