TNLA expected to withdraw from temporarily controlled areas amid waning public support
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Phyo/Thant Zin (NP News) - Sep 2
Due to weak public support and various pressures, the TNLA will be forced to retreat from areas it controls earlier, according to information obtained by The Statesman Journal from analysts and locals in northern Shan State.
During Operation 1027, the TNLA seized 11 towns in northern Shan State and Mogok in Mandalay Region.
However, frequent territorial disputes with partner groups and ethnic discrimination, including the designation of Ta’aung as the official language in some townships despite the presence of ethnic minorities, have created challenges in these areas, and have also been facing a decline in local trust and support.
In addition, the TNLA is under significant military pressure due to the loss of Nawnghkio to the Tatmadaw, the crushing defeat in Thabeikkyin, which was previously controlled by the TNLA and MDY-PDF, and the Tatmadaw's ongoing offensive in Kyaukme.
“The current fierce fighting is taking place in Nawngping. Drones are also being dropped from the Hsipaw side. The TNLA is still resisting in Nawngping. If they can’t resist anymore, they will retreat. Now, we see Tamadaw carried heavy weapons in Kyaukme. About one-tenth of the residents in Kyaukme are returning,” said a local woman.
The TNLA reportedly came under a lot of pressure last week after the UWSA announced that it would no longer provide weapons and financial assistance.
A Northern Shan analyst said that due to the decline in public support and increasing pressure, the TNLA will be forced to withdraw from the areas they control.
“Based on the current situation on the ground, the TNLA is retreating. We have seen them taking office equipment and moving away. They are at a point where they are about to retreat. They are under pressure on one side and lack public support on the other. This is the reason why these things are happening because of public disapproval. Now, in Kyaukme and Hsipaw, they are not supported. People no longer have confidence. They are in a situation where they are facing pressure,” the analyst said.
On August 24, the TNLA's bombing of the world-famous Gokteik Viaduct, which was not related to military operations, is still drawing a lot of public criticism.
Some TNLA supporters have appeared on social media, claiming that the TNLA's demolition of the Gokteik Viaduct was the right thing to do.
However, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for the National Defense and Security Council’s information team, has warned that the TNLA and PDF who detonated the mines at the Gokteik Viaduct will face severe retaliation.