Shifting alliances and external pressure push Kayin State toward proxy conflict ahead of elections
90
By Phyo Lin Aung (NP News) - December 18
Kayin State has entered a period of heightened instability as the government intensifies its nationwide crackdown on online fraud operations. The sweeping campaign has disrupted long-established revenue streams and drawn in a mix of armed groups and foreign actors—each maneuvering for influence in a rapidly shifting landscape. Residents and analysts say the region has not seen this level of political and military tension in years.
Controversy surged after the Minletpan incident, where some exile media outlets reported that the Tatmadaw was attempting to eliminate evidence out of fear that the United States might intervene and take action against online scam networks.
At the same time, the Karen National Union (KNU) was portrayed as having raided the Shunda Park online scam operation in Minletpan village, and handing over significant evidence to authorities in neighboring Thailand.
However, these claims can be remarked as “ridiculous,” raising questions about who truly benefits from online fraud, and pointing to the foreign origins of many of the online scam operations.
The KNU has long opposed the government’s planned elections, and conducting sabotage aimed at disrupting regional stability. According to these accounts, the KNU has been recruiting other armed groups with alleged support from the CIA. This fuel speculation that the KNU’s actions in Minletpan were not aimed at combating fraud, but rather at gaining political and territorial advantage before any potential foreign intervention. The group’s influence over the PDFs, which operate as KNU-aligned forces, further complicates the security environment. Officials also argue that the U.S. is using the online fraud issue as a justification to intervene in the conflict.
Kayin State hosts a complex landscape of armed groups including the KNU, DKBA, BGF, KNU/KNLA-PC, and KNU-aligned PDFs. The Tatmadaw has recently launched offensives against KNU and PDF forces, regaining control of strategic positions along the Asian Highway, a major artery for trade and military movement.
The Border Guard Forces (BGF)—formed in 2009 from former insurgent groups, underwent a major internal shift in early 2024 when all BGF camps announced their decision to secede from the government and reorganize as the Karen National Army (KNA).
However, facing international pressure and sanctions targeting online scam operations, the BGF reversed course and re-engaged with the government, shifting the landscape again.
Sources estimate the BGF now numbers more than 20,000 personnel. Despite earlier steps toward independence, signs have emerged that some factions may seek renewed alignment with the KNU. According to claims circulating within Kayin State, the KNU and U.S. entities have offered financial incentives to armed groups, including BGF leaders.
U.S. influence and sanctions strategy
The United States is reportedly using sanctions as leverage against armed groups in the region, according to sources familiar with developments in Kayin State.
As the Myanmar government intensifies its crackdown on online fraud networks—and as the U.S. recognizes that these operations have long served as a primary source of income for armed groups in the region—Washington is said to be positioning itself to influence these groups. With their revenue streams disrupted, many armed factions are being pushed back toward open rebellion, sources claim.
The U.S. has allegedly stepped in with financial support and supplies. “The U.S. will provide the necessary ammunition first. Money is also included. The way the U.S. wants to shape the perception is that China has joined hands with the Myanmar government and has completely suppressed the armed groups, including the BGF,” said a person close to the online scam issue.
Because of such alleged incentives, armed groups across Kayin State are described as having become “puppets” of U.S. influence, including some BGF camps previously aligned with the military.
According to these accounts, the U.S. is seeking to identify and capture the key players behind the online scam operations. American intelligence cells are reportedly deployed throughout Kayin State, operating under the belief that major figures in the scam industry are sheltering there.
This effort coincided with a border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia that led Thailand to temporarily close all border gates. This closure left many scam leaders—who frequently traveled between Myanmar and Thailand—trapped inside Myanmar. At the same time, the Myanmar government declared the suppression of online scam operations a matter of national priority, leaving these individuals with no viable escape route.
Major scam hubs such as Shwe Kokko and KK Park then came under the protection of Colonel Saw Tin Win, the BGF’s operations commander.
“If the online scam leaders are arrested, they will have to be transferred to Thailand. Some of them are trying to escape to Japan, but they don’t dare to leave. They are not going anywhere—they remain inside the area controlled by Saw Tin Win,” said a source close to the online scam affair.
Saw Tin Win is widely believed by sources to be the main beneficiary of the scam operations. As the economic manager of the Kayin BGF, he is said to possess extensive knowledge of the networks’ methods—reportedly even more than BGF leader Colonel Saw Chit Thu. Sources say that even Saw Chit Thu did not profit to the same extent.
Like other armed groups in Kayin State, the Kayin BGF generates income by leasing land and providing security for online scam operations.
A source familiar with KK Park explained that “The income is close to a million baht a month just from KK Park. Look at the salaries—6,000 baht for a soldier, 300,000 baht for an operations commander. They can drive the latest cars. They can buy weapons.”
Internal divisions within the BGF
Some members in the Kayin BGF insist they were initially unaware of the illegal nature of the online operations on the land they leased. Now, with the government fully committed to shutting down these networks, officials argue it is time for the BGF to cooperate.
However, factions within the BGF appear sharply divided. Sources claim Saw Tin Win maintains firm control over key scam sites and commands up to 10,000 troops, which could complicate government efforts in the region. Concerns have been raised that any large-scale confrontation could jeopardize the upcoming elections in Kayin State.
Regional ripple effects and election risk
The unfolding scandal around online fraud coincides with the national election period, raising difficult and conflicting political questions.
Some argue that addressing the crisis immediately is essential to restoring order, while others warn that aggressive action could destabilize the election process. Rumors—unconfirmed at this stage—suggest that if the Kayin BGF were to rebel completely, armed groups in neighboring Shan State might also rise up.
For now, Kayin State remains in a volatile and uncertain situation as political, military, and international pressures converge around the government’s efforts to dismantle online scam networks. –