ICJ may take a year or two to decide, but outcome could be favorable
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Phyo/Thuta Kyaw (NP News) - February 12
The case facing Myanmar at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) may take a year or two to reach a final outcome, but from a legal perspective, Myanmar can expect a positive outcome, U Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies told The Statesman.
He said that the ICJ has a slow process that typically takes years to reach a final decision on the merits of a case, and that the timing of the final decision depends solely on the court.
U Thein Tun Oo said, “The ICJ's normal completion time is when it has finished its work. Generally, it takes a year or two. It also depends on the situation and how the judges decide. So, the timeframe will depend on the ICJ’s announcement. It is difficult to say exactly. There will be no fixed time.”
In addition, he continued by saying that the Myanmar delegation's arguments are currently strong and therefore have an advantage over Gambia's allegations.
“For the result, based on the submissions and arguments presented by the Myanmar delegation so far, we can see from a legal perspective that our side has been able to present a solution with solid evidence. So, we will consider them based on all of those. Gambia’s allegations are legally unfounded, so we can hope that this time Myanmar’s argument can yield a really good result,” he said.
However, he warned that international pressure could change the court’s final results.
“As is known internationally, sometimes even large organizations can make decisions that are influenced by changes or pressure, which can lead to deviations. That’s something to keep in mind. However, it can be assessed that a very negative decision is unlikely. Because, based on the results presented by Myanmar and the claims made by Gambia, as far as current studies show, Myanmar has certain advantages. It’s unrealistic to expect an extremely adverse outcome. What is possible is that, regarding Gambia’s claims, there could be some neglect and a chance for Myanmar and Bangladesh to coordinate and resolve the issue collaboratively. But it’s difficult to predict. If I had to say, I'd say there’s no reason to think it could reach the worst-case scenario,” he said.
U Thein Tun Oo assessed that, although Myanmar initially had to resolve the matter bilaterally, it has now reached a high level of international attention. However, it is unlikely that a bad situation will arise as the country has prepared for the current situation as well as possible. –